India could face a cooking gas crisis if the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict escalates or prolongs. The country currently has only 16 days’ worth of LPG supply, and with 66% of LPG imports coming from West Asia, the situation is being closely monitored by the government.
According to government estimates, out of 33 crore LPG connections in India, two out of every three cylinders are imported, primarily from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. The war in West Asia now threatens this critical supply chain.
Key Concerns:
- LPG Dependency: LPG usage has doubled over the past decade due to government programs, making 95% of imported LPG dependent on West Asian sources.
- Limited Alternatives: The piped natural gas (PNG) network reaches only 1.5 crore households, and expanding this to match LPG coverage could take up to 20 years.
- Backup Sources Possible: Officials claim LPG can also be sourced from the US, Europe, Malaysia, and Africa if needed, but this may take time and come at a higher cost.
- Minister’s Assurance: Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that India has enough LPG stocks to last “several weeks”, and the country is ready to handle short-term disruptions.
Stock Status:
- India’s current LPG stock across import terminals, refineries, and bottling plants can sustain average national consumption for 16 days.
- Officials believe the global oil market is now better prepared to absorb geopolitical shocks, citing past events like the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts as precedents.
What Happens If Supply Fails?
If LPG supplies are interrupted, alternatives like electric cooking may become necessary, especially after the phasing out of kerosene from ration distribution. This shift could strain household budgets and increase electricity consumption.
Experts caution that even though markets have become more resilient, a prolonged conflict could still push LPG prices higher and cause cylinder shortages across India, affecting millions of politically sensitive households.
